Looking Ahead At 2026
Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated from 7.1% in 2024 to 8% in 2025. Several factors supported the country’s growth last year, the two most notable of which were a 40% increase in Chinese tourist arrivals (Vietnam replaced Thailand as the most favored destination for Chinese tourists) and a 28% surge in exports to the U.S. (driven by an 80% jump in exports of laptops and other electronics products).
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: December 2025
Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated from 7.1% in 2024 to 8% in 2025. Several factors supported the country’s growth last year, the two most notable of which were a 40% increase in Chinese tourist arrivals (Vietnam replaced Thailand as the most favored destination for Chinese tourists) and a 28% surge in exports to the U.S. (driven by an 80% jump in exports of laptops and other electronics products).
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: November 2025
Vietnam’s economy remains resilient despite November floods, with GDP growth projected at 7.5% for 2025 and 8% in 2026. Manufacturing surges, trade surplus widens, and interest rates rise slightly
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: October 2025
Vietnam’s economic growth in 2025 has been driven by two main factors, which remained strong in October: robustexports to the US—especially high-tech products—and a steady increase in tourist arrivals from China. Exports tothe US rose by nearly 30% in the first ten months of 2025, while tourist arrivals were up 22%. Both figures wereessentially unchanged […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: September 2025
Vietnam’s Growth Accelerates: Exports, FDI, and Tourism Fuel 2025 Surge Growth Accelerating. Vietnam’s economic growth accelerated from 7.6% YoY in 1H25 to 7.9% in 9M25, supportedby unexpectedly strong exports to the US, prompting us and most other economists in Vietnam to lift our 2025GDP growth forecasts. We now expect GDP growth to reach 7.5% in […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: August 2025
Vietnam’s economic growth trajectory remained solid in August – and we continue to expect 7% GDP growth this year. Vietnam’s high-frequency economic indicators were nearly unchanged in August; export growth to the US continues to slow while infrastructure investment in Vietnam continues to surge – by nearly 50% YoY in 8M25. In contrast, the outlook […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: July 2025
We continue to expect Vietnam’s GDP to grow by 7% in 2025. Two factors currently driving the country’s economic growth are: a 28% surge in exports to the US and a 23% jump in tourist arrivals in 7M25. Meanwhile, two topics currently capturing the attention of investorsin Vietnam are: the risk that Trump’s tariffs could […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: June 2025
Vietnam’s GDP growth accelerated from 7.1% YoY in 1Q25 to 7.5% in 1H25, driven by a 28% YoY surge in exports to the US in Q2 – up from 22% YoY growth in Q1. Exports from Vietnam (and Asia) to the US jumped as companies “front loaded” purchases of “Made in Vietnam” products during Trump’s […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: May 2025
The three outstanding features of Vietnam’s economy in May (and 5M25) are: 1) a dramatic acceleration / surge in infrastructure spending as the year has progressed; 2) a surge in exports to the US during Trump’s 90-day “pause” period on reciprocal tariffs; and 3) a near 50% year-on-year (YoY) surge in Chinese tourist arrivals in […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: April 2025
President Donald Trump’s April 2nd announcement of unexpectedly severe 46% “reciprocal tariffs” on Vietnamese exports to the US, followed by a 90-day “pause” initiated a week later, triggered a significant surge in exports from Vietnam. This export rush, which we anticipated in our recent webinar, markedly influenced Vietnam’s economy during April. Prior to these announcements, […]