Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: March 2025

Vietnam’s GDP growth dipped to 6.9% for the first quarter of 2025 after ending 2024 with 7.1% growth. The first quarter’s growth was affected by the slowdown in export growth we have been forecasting, although that was partly offset by a pick-up in consumption (which we also expected) and by an unforeseen increase in tourist […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: February 2025

February’s macroeconomic statistics support our forecasts that Vietnam’s GDP will grow at a comparable pace in 2025 as it did in 2024, although the drivers will be different. This year, a pickup in consumption and public spending will be two of the key drivers, which should offset to some extent slowing export growth to the […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: January 2025

Vietnam’s economic statistics for January and February are always impacted by the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday. This year, the holiday was in January (versus February in 2024), resulting in four fewer working days during the month. In January, industrial production growth in Vietnam was nearly flat year-on-year. There was also slowing export […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: December 2024

Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth came in at 7.1%, a solid recovery from the 5.1% recorded for 2023. The expansion in 2024 was driven entirely by a surge in manufacturing output growth (from 3.6% in 2023 to 9.8% in 2024), which inturn was propelled by a recovery in Vietnam’s export to the US from an 11% […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: November 2024

We have been advising investors for months that Vietnam’s economy has been supported by an extraordinary surge in exports to the US this year, which boosted the country’s manufacturing sector. However, the growth of consumption by Vietnamese consumers has been fairly modest, which is reflected in modest revenue and earnings growth of consumer-facing companies in […]
Vietnam Macroeconomic Commentary: October 2024

This year, Vietnam’s economy has been almost entirely supported by the recovery of the country’smanufacturing sector, from essentially no growth in 10M23 to 9.6% y-o-y growth in 10M24. Themanufacturing sector’s growth is being driven by surging tech exports, especially to the US. Computer and electronics exports to the US were up 42% y-o-y in 10M24 […]