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Trump’s Transshipment Crackdown & Tariff Threats: Assessing Vietnam’s Exposure

Michael Kokalari CFA, Chief Economist Minimal Expected Economic Impact to Vietnam from Potential US Trade Actions On August 13, the Trump administration published a report titled The Great Transshipment Scam[1], which alleges that China is using a network of more than 40 countries, including Vietnam, to circumvent US tariffs through transshipment.  This report follows a […]

Vietnam’s International Financial Center (IFC): Not the Next Dubai

Michael Kokalari CFA, Chief Economist The establishment of the Vietnam International Financial Center (“VIFC,” also referred to locally as the “VIFC-HCMC” and/or the “IFC”) has garnered a lot of headlines over the past 18 months. In little over a year, it went from an ambitious concept to establishment and launch in early 2026. Its legal […]

Priced for Crisis, Primed for Growth: Vietnam’s Bifurcated Stock Market

Michael Kokalari CFA, Chief Economist Valuations consistent with crisis conditions – despite VN’s resilient economy The VN-Index is trading at an attractive 13x forward P/E valuation versus 15% expected earnings growth, but that headline figure obscures a deeper discount: over 70% of the market is trading below 10x P/E, a valuation that is consistent with […]

An Update on the US-Iran War’s Impact on Vietnam

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Michael Kokalari CFA, Chief Economist Thai Thi Viet Trinh, Senior Economist We estimate the damage that the month-long US-Israel-Iran war has already done to Vietnam’s economy are a 2%pts increase in inflation and a −1.5%pts hit to GDP growth, unless the Government takes decisive actions to support the economy and limit petrol price increases—including bigger […]

Iran War: Modest Impact on Vietnam

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Michael Kokalari CFA, Chief Economist Thai Thi Viet Trinh, Senior Economist A short but intense effect on global markets The war in Iran should not have a major impact on Vietnam, partially because its exports to the Middle East account for less than 3% of total exports, and because protracted, large-scale ground operations in Iran […]

Vietnam’s Path to an Investment-Grade Rating

Vietnam sits on the precipice of becoming an investment-grade rated country, currently essentially one notch below investment grade. Achieving investment grade status would: 1) lower Vietnam’s cost of funding; 2) facilitate large-scale infrastructure development; and 3) support the country’s stock market by unlocking access to a wider group of global institutional investors.

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