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Vietnam and US make progress on trade negotiation

Vietnam and US make progress on trade negotiation

Following a call with General Secretary To Lam on Wednesday (July 2nd) evening, President Trump announced that the US has reached an agreement with Vietnam on tariffs – the first with an ASEAN country. Despite the fact that many details are yet to be determined¹, the agreement creates “a framework for a fair and balanced […]

Resolution 68: A new dawn for Vietnam’s private sector

Resolution 68: A new dawn for Vietnam's private sector

Last week, the Vietnamese Communist Party’s Politburo issued Resolution 68, a landmark directive poised to redefine the landscape for private enterprise in Vietnam. Hailed as a historic “turning point,” the resolution fundamentally elevates the status of the private economic sector, explicitly identifying it as “the most important driving force of the national economy.” This represents […]

Doi Moi 2.0: Vietnam’s Government Restructuring

Doi moi 2.0: Vietnam's government restructuring

Vietnam’s Government is undergoing a major restructuring that many are calling “Doi Moi 2.0,” a reference to the 1986 Doi Moi reforms that ushered in an era of extraordinary economic growth for the country. This restructuring has already reduced the number of departments at the central Government level from 22 to 17 (including the consolidation […]

The impact of Trump’s tariffs on Vietnam

The impact of Trump’s tariffs on Vietnam

The April 3rd announcement that the Trump administration will impose 46% “reciprocal tariffs” on Vietnam from April 9th was completely unexpected. Based on our analysis, these tariffs will make it difficult for Vietnam to achieve its 8% GDP growth target. The market was expecting 10% tariffs on Vietnam, and we expected even lower tariffs for […]

Increased 2025 Infrastructure Investment Target

Increased 2025 Infrastructure Investment Target

Vietnam’s Government increased its 2025 infrastructure spending target from 6% of GDP to 7%/GDP last week and simultaneously lifted its GDP growth target for 2025 from 7% to 8%. The increased 1%/GDP of planned spending on infrastructure projects should help the country achieve the Government’s new, 1% higher 2025 GDP growth target and will also […]

Positive outlook for Vietnam’s banking sector in 2025

marina central tower

Bank stocks account for 40% of the VN-Index (VNI) and vastly outperformed the VNI in 2024. The 18 banks¹ listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange surged 23% in VND terms vs 12% for the VN-Index (17% in USD terms vs. 9%, respectively). We believe the sector will deliver a strong performance again this […]

Looking ahead at 2025

Looking ahead 2025

The strong US economy supported Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024, but domestic factors will drive the economy in 2025 because Vietnam’s economic prosperity is closely linked to the US and export growth to the US is set to slow next year for a variety of reasons. Vietnam’s Government is planning policy measures that should mitigate […]

Trump’s election should have little impact on Vietnam

VOF-Trump

With the U.S. presidential election now complete, all eyes have turned to what the new Trump administration will actually do once it takes office in January 2025. In many countries around the world, concerns are being raised about the impact of Trump’s election on their economies. However, we believe those risks are overestimated and we […]

The US FED’s rate cut: A double-edged sword for Vietnam

VOF-The-US-FED-rate-cut-A-double-edged-sword-for-Vietnam

The US Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would cut rates by 50 basis points in response to falling inflation and clear signs that the US economy is slowing. The Fed’s large rate cut is a double-edge sword for Vietnam because the resulting decline in the value of the US Dollar reduces depreciation pressure […]

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