The impact of Trump’s tariffs on Vietnam

The April 3rd announcement that the Trump administration will impose 46% “reciprocal tariffs” on Vietnam from April 9th was completely unexpected. Based on our analysis, these tariffs will make it difficult for Vietnam to achieve its 8% GDP growth target. The market was expecting 10% tariffs on Vietnam, and we expected even lower tariffs for […]

Increased 2025 Infrastructure Investment Target

Vietnam’s Government increased its 2025 infrastructure spending target from 6% of GDP to 7%/GDP last week and simultaneously lifted its GDP growth target for 2025 from 7% to 8%. The increased 1%/GDP of planned spending on infrastructure projects should help the country achieve the Government’s new, 1% higher 2025 GDP growth target and will also […]

Positive outlook for Vietnam’s banking sector in 2025

Bank stocks account for 40% of the VN-Index (VNI) and vastly outperformed the VNI in 2024. The 18 banks¹ listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange surged 23% in VND terms vs 12% for the VN-Index (17% in USD terms vs. 9%, respectively). We believe the sector will deliver a strong performance again this […]

Looking ahead at 2025

The strong US economy supported Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2024, but domestic factors will drive the economy in 2025 because Vietnam’s economic prosperity is closely linked to the US and export growth to the US is set to slow next year for a variety of reasons. Vietnam’s Government is planning policy measures that should mitigate […]

Trump’s election should have little impact on Vietnam

With the U.S. presidential election now complete, all eyes have turned to what the new Trump administration will actually do once it takes office in January 2025. In many countries around the world, concerns are being raised about the impact of Trump’s election on their economies. However, we believe those risks are overestimated and we […]

The US FED’s rate cut: A double-edged sword for Vietnam

The US Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it would cut rates by 50 basis points in response to falling inflation and clear signs that the US economy is slowing. The Fed’s large rate cut is a double-edge sword for Vietnam because the resulting decline in the value of the US Dollar reduces depreciation pressure […]

The US economy is driving Vietnam’s economic growth in 2024. Will the US presidential election change that?

The US economy is by far the most important factor impacting Vietnam’s GDP this year. Vietnam is one of the three countries in the world that has the closest economic links to the US, and surprisingly strong US consumption is driving recoveries in Vietnam’s exports, manufacturing, and GDP growth. This report explains some of the […]

Vietnam’s resilient stock market

The VN-Index is up ~10% YTD driven by an expected 19% increase in FY2024 earnings, and strong buying of Vietnamese stocks by local retail investors – in contrast to heavy foreign selling this year. The rebound in earnings growth from a 5% drop last year to 19% growth this year is supported by an acceleration […]

Tourism surge boosts Vietnam’s economy

The number of international tourists visiting Vietnam surged 65% yoy in 5M24, and is now slightly above pre-COVID levels, despite the fact that Chinese tourist arrivals in Vietnam – and in the rest of Asia – remain well below 2019 levels. Chinese tourists previously accounted for one-third of Vietnam’s total foreign tourist arrivals and China […]

Export recovery propelling logistics & industrial park stocks

The recovery of exports has had a positive impact across several sectors of Vietnam’s economy – it was largely responsible for the country’s 5.7% GDP growth in 1Q24, a significant boost1 from the 3.4% growth recorded in 1Q23. Exports to the US, Vietnam’s largest market, rebounded from a 21% drop in 1Q23 to a 24% […]